2025 'likely' to be in top three warmest years: UK Met Office

By AFP

The UK weather service forecast Thursday that 2025 would likely be among the top three warmest years globally, falling just behind the record-breaking temperatures set in the past months.

According to the Meteorological Office's 2025 forecast, average global temperatures next year will be 1.29 to 1.53 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), slightly cooler than in 2024 and 2023.

The Met also said 2024 was expected to be the warmest year on record, confirming findings released this week by Europe's climate monitor Copernicus.

The reports come at the end of a year in which rich and poor countries were devastated by climate disasters that scientists link to human activity that is rapidly warming the Earth.

According to the Met forecast, 2024 is also "almost certain to exceed" for the first time the 1.5C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) threshold to protect the planet from dangerously overheating, following the 1.45C reached in 2023.

"The major contribution" to warming temperatures is the rise of greenhouse gas emissions, driven by human activity like burning fossil fuels, according to the report.

2024 and 2023 temperatures were also "elevated slightly" by El Nino, a natural phenomenon that moves around warm water.

However, the Met warned that 2025 would remain warm, despite not experiencing the warming El Nino effect.

"Years, such as 2025, which aren't dominated by the warming influence of El Nino, should be cooler," said Adam Scaife, who led the Met's 2025 forecast.

'Sobering milestone'

Scaife compared 2025 to a decade earlier, when 2016, which was an El Nino year, was the warmest year on record at the time.

"In comparison to our forecast for 2025 though, 2016 is now looking decidedly cool," Scaife said.

The average global temperature for 2025 is forecast to be between 1.29C and 1.53C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.41C. In 2016, the average was 0.77C.

The Met's scientists also said 2024 crossing 1.5C was a "sobering milestone".

The world agreed under the 2015 Paris climate agreement to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, with scientists warning that crossing the threshold for decades would be catastrophic for the planet.

"It's important to recognise that a temporary exceedance of 1.5C doesn't mean a breach of the Paris Agreement," said the Met's Nick Dunstone, who worked on the forecast.

"But the first year above 1.5C is certainly a sobering milestone in climate history."

The report comes days after the UK was battered by its fourth named storm of the season, causing flooding and deaths and knocking out power to tens of thousands of homes.

Climate scientists say storms are becoming more powerful as the world heats up. Warmer ocean surfaces release more water vapour that provides additional energy for storms, strengthening winds.